economic slowdown

This tag is associated with 20 posts

Chinese Dragon: Breathing Credit Fumes

By Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk Economic forecasting, no matter how complex the underlying model may be, is essentially about extrapolating historical trends. We showed last week how economic models completely fail to pick up on structural shifts using Japan as an example. On the other hand, if an economy doesn’t really change much, as in the case … Continue reading

China’s Economy Isn’t “Recovering”

By Jeffrey P. Snider, Alhambra Investment Partners You can always tell what kind of monthly variation any economic account provides from the commentary by which it is described. And there are, apparently, only two options: upward variations mean stimulus is working; downward variation just means that there will be more stimulus. Even by this crude cipher, … Continue reading

The Fed Is Just As Wrong Today As It Was In 1937

By Jeffrey P. Snider, Alhambra Investment Partners There is great allure in comparing our current economic circumstances to those in 1937, and why wouldn’t there be? The associations are especially striking, starting with the gaping hole left over by each contraction. Each recovery, then and now, was at least moving in the right direction but not … Continue reading

Revisions To U.S. Industrial Production Show, Unsurprisingly, Much Less Recovery And Even More Recession

By Jeffrey P. Snider, Alhambra Investment Partners US industrial production fell yet again in March to (benchmark revised) -2% year-over-year. With updated revisions, the contraction in IP now extends seven months rather than what would have been just five under the prior assumptions. As anticipated yesterday, auto production was a leading factor in the retreat. The … Continue reading

Secular Stagnation Would Be The Best Case, But It’s Not Even Realistic

By Jeffrey P. Snider, Alhambra Investment Partners The IMF released the first 2016 edition of its World Economic Outlook (WEO). Titled Too Slow For Too Long, it seems as if the institution has finally caught on to the fact that the global recovery never really was a recovery. Throughout the report you get the sense that they … Continue reading

Economic Collapse Is Erupting All Over The Planet As Global Leaders Begin To Panic

By Michael Snyder Mainstream news outlets are already starting to use the phrase “economic collapse” to describe what is going on in some areas of our world right now.  For many Americans this may seem a bit strange, but the truth is that the worldwide economic slowdown that began during the second half of last … Continue reading

More Troubles May Lie Ahead For Nigeria As MSCI Weighs Removal From Index

More troubles may lie ahead for Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy, as global equity index provider MSCI is considering dropping the nation from its benchmark Frontier Markets Index, which could put $500 million of equity investment under threat. On Thursday MSCI announced that it’s considering removing the country from its Frontier Markets Index, blaming currency restrictions imposed by … Continue reading

The ‘New Normal’ Of Slow Growth Proves To Be Not Even That

By Jeffrey P. Snider, Alhambra Investment Partners The only common factor on the economy viewed from the mainstream in the past few years is the shrinking standards by which it is judged. Janet Yellen can somehow suggest erratic 2% GDP growth is “overheating” or close to it only because that is the reduction of the “new … Continue reading

Lost Faith In Central Banks And The Economic End Game

By Brandon Smith We live in strange economic times, stranger perhaps than at any other point in history. Since 2007-2008, the globally intertwined and dependent fiscal system has suffered considerable declines in every conceivable area. Manufacturing around the world is in a slump, from Japan to China to Europe, with the minimal manufacturing accomplished in the … Continue reading

The Tyranny Of Central Banking And The End Of Free Markets

By Jeffrey P. Snider, Alhambra Investment Partners In August 1855, Abraham Lincoln wrote a letter to his good friend Joshua Speed who had lived in Springfield but had since returned to his childhood home in Kentucky. The Missouri Compromise of 1820 had recently been overturned in Congress by the Kansas-Nebraska Act and the nation was somewhat … Continue reading

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