This category contains 67 posts

World Bank Revises Down Forecasts For Oil Prices, Other Key Commodities In 2015 And 2016

WASHINGTON, October 20, 2015 –In its latest commodity update, the World Bank is lowering its 2015 forecast for crude oil prices from $57 per barrel in its July report to $52 per barrel. The revised forecast reflects a further slowing in global economic performance, high current oil inventories, and expectations that Iranian oil exports will rise after the lifting of international … Continue reading

El Niño Will Wreak Economic Havoc On Kenya If Not Managed

By Anzetse Were Kenya will be subjected to heavy El Niño rains that will start at the end of this month. The government requires Sh15.5 billion to deal with any emergencies arising from the El Niño rains but thus far only Sh5 billion and Sh20 million from each county has been set aside for the … Continue reading

How To Manage The Commodity Roller Coaster

By Vitor Gaspar  The world economy is experiencing important transitions and associated uncertainties. Commodity prices have fallen sharply, with adverse consequences for exporting countries. China’s rebalancing and the prospect of U.S. interest rate increases are having important and costly spillover effects on other economies. And these and other factors are posing important fiscal challenges, especially … Continue reading

How Fiscal Policy Can Tame The Commodities Roller Coaster

Countries that build buffers have a softer landing when commodity prices and revenues go down Public investment and social spending must be carefully managed to deliver long-lasting benefits Strong fiscal frameworks and institutions can ensure natural resources support long-term growth Resource-rich economies face enormous challenges to manage volatile and unpredictable commodity prices. In its latest … Continue reading

How Much Will Climate Change Cost South Asian Economies?

By Amantha Perera South Asian economies stand to lose around 1.3 percent of their collective annual GDP by 2050 even if global temperature increases are kept to 2 degrees Celsius, experts and public officials warn. In the second half of the century, the losses are likely to increase to around 2.5 percent of GDP, warns … Continue reading

Despite Elections, Argentina’s Economic Trajectory Is Set

Regardless of election outcomes in October, Argentina’s next government will begin liberalizing its economy, potentially loosening restrictions on the repatriation of funds, reducing the enforcement of price controls and reducing subsidies. Despite slight changes to Argentina’s regulatory framework, the government will continue to bar some investment and businesses to stem capital flight and to maintain … Continue reading

Uganda Isn’t The Problem In The Kenyan Sugar Row

The headlines have been full of the sugar row unfolding across Kenya. Why is Kenya importing sugar from Uganda? Should the sugar industry be protected? What about the livelihood of sugar farmers? Sadly this issue has been politicised and muddied what the focus of the conversation ought to be. So let’s deal with a few … Continue reading

How Peru’s Drug Trade Is Threatening Its Economic Growth

By Neil Pyper Peru has been hailed an emerging market success story, with more than a decade of GDP growth in excess of 6%. While booming mining exports have been the overwhelming driver of this, the shopping malls and SUVs in Lima and other major cities are evidence that domestic demand has also been buoyant. … Continue reading

Are The Oceans Earth’s New Economic Frontier?

By Alistair McIlgorm Amid growing demand for seafood, gas and other resources drawn from the world’s oceans, and growing stresses from climate change, we examine some of the challenges and solutions for developing “the blue economy” in smarter, more sustainable ways. As the world’s land-based economies struggle with annual rates of around 2% growth in Gross … Continue reading

Sell-Off In Commodities And Emerging Markets Probably Over Says BofAML

“Fund managers are bailing on emerging markets, commodities and energy-related stocks at a record pace, suggesting that capitulation could be at hand, according to the latest fund-managers survey from Bank of America Merrill Lynch,” MarketWatch reports.   Fears on Greece have been replaced by fears of Chinese recession / EM debt crisis. This has manifested … Continue reading

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